Model note: All PCI and backlog outcomes use the $2M/yr recurring base. The ~$5.36M lifecycle proxy is a planning reference only — not a funding input. Debt is a temporary capital reset; after the deployment period every scenario returns to $2M/yr recurring. Toggle controls above update all metrics instantly.
Network PCI trajectory — selected scenario
Year-20 PCI — all debt tiers
★ = illustrative planning band. Reference lines at 51.9 baseline, 65 fair, 70 good.
Full scenario comparison — all debt tiers (same deploy / term / rate as selected)
Debt outcomes (PCI columns) sourced from rebuilt $2M/yr engine. Debt service and homeowner impact recalculate live from your controls above.
| Debt | Annual Cap | FY2027 Cap | Avg-Home/yr | Y5 PCI | Y10 PCI | Y20 PCI | Δ PCI | Poor Mi Y20 | 5-Yr Envelope | Read |
|---|
PCI outcomes from Excel Road Reference sheet (2M Recurring FINAL). DS recalculates live. Avg-home: avg SF AV $390,444 / FY2026 TAV $5.37B.
Ward delivery — 5-year debt-deployment program ($15M / Balanced Network)
Annual capital plan — FY2027–2046
Bond deploy (gold) + recurring $2M (navy). Shaded area = bond period.
Segments & miles treated per year
Bar = segment count (left). Line = miles treated (right).
FY2027 named road preview — first-year program
24 segments under $15M / 5-yr / Balanced Network. Planning sequence — not a final construction list. DPW overrides after field review.
Ward:
| Rank | Ward | Street | From | To | Class | PCI 2023 | Treatment | Miles | Cost |
|---|
Legal note: A voter-approved road debt exclusion sits outside Fitchburg's ordinary Prop 2½ levy limit. It does not reduce the General Fund or add to CLA's deficit projection. Statutory debt capacity requires EQV + official Ch.44 §10 calculation — do not infer from taxable AV.
Annual debt service — excluded road DS vs existing GF debt (FY2027–2050)
Road exclusion (gold) legally separate from existing GF debt (navy). Pension shown as fiscal context only.
Fiscal context — CLA forecast + pension schedule
GF deficit and pension are context only. Do not mechanically add to excluded road DS.
Full fiscal schedule — FY2027–2050 (live — recalculates with your debt controls)
| FY | Existing GF DS | New Road Excl. DS | Total DS | Avg-Home Impact | Est. City Pension | CLA GF Surplus/(Deficit) |
|---|
Sources: CLA Final Report (May 2025) · P&I July 1 2026 schedules · Retirement System Funding Schedule (July 2025) · City share = 95.67% × system contribution.
Illustrative planning band: $15M–$20M. Under the rebuilt $2M/yr engine $15M is the first tested tier finishing Year 20 above the 51.9 PCI baseline. The range is a discussion band — not a borrowing recommendation. All tiers use same recurring base + your selected deploy / term / rate above.
Peak avg-home impact — all tiers
Year-20 PCI — all tiers
Scenario ladder — all debt tiers (DS recalculates live with controls above)
| Debt | Peak DS/yr | Avg-Home/yr | Screen? | % $138M Backlog | Annual Cap | 5-Yr Envelope | PCI Y5 | PCI Y10 | PCI Y15 | PCI Y20 | Δ PCI | Poor Mi Y20 | Read |
|---|
Planning sequence only — not a final engineering commitment. DPW overrides after field inspection, utility coordination and design review. Reconcile with 2024–2026 completed work before formal adoption.
Full named road program — FY2027 & FY2028 (34 segments)
Ward:
FY:
| Rank | FY | Ward | Street | From | To | Class | PCI | AADT | Treatment | Miles | Cost |
|---|
Debt proceeds staged in equal annual tranches over the deployment period. After deployment ends, each scenario returns to $2M/yr recurring — making the persistence or erosion of the capital reset visible over time.
20-year mileage-weighted PCI trajectories — $2M/yr recurring base
View:
HKS vs Fitchburg provisional deterioration curve
Fitchburg (b=0.2125, c=11.5) is flatter — max loss ~5.3 pts/yr vs HKS 8.75 pts/yr. Provisional; needs recalibration with longitudinal data.
Poor miles at Year 20 — all debt tiers
From 82.3 mi poor today. Larger capital resets produce more durable poor-mile reduction.
5 open items before formal adoption:
(1) EQV + Ch.44 §10 debt-limit headroom — Treasurer/Auditor.
(2) Prevailing borrowing rate — financial adviser + bond counsel.
(3) DPW annual delivery capacity for selected deployment period.
(4) Refresh recurring road funding with adopted capital plan / Chapter 90.
(5) Recalibrate deterioration model with additional untreated PCI observations.
Model inputs
| Recurring base | $2.0M/yr |
| Lifecycle proxy (ref only) | $5.36M/yr |
| Baseline PCI (2023) | 51.944 |
| Poor miles baseline | 82.34 mi |
| Network segments | 1,154 segments |
| Network miles | 180.04 mi |
| BETA direct need | $84.95M |
| Planning backlog | $138M |
| FY2026 TAV | $5.37B |
| Avg SF AV | $390,444 (not median) |
| FY2027 net levy | $72.57M |
| Opportunity grants | None in base case |
Methodology
| PCI engine | Rebuilt $2M/yr base |
| Allocation | 33% worst / 33% preserve / 34% traffic |
| Deterioration | PCI(t) = 100/(1+e^(b×(t−c))) |
| Local b / c | 0.2125 / 11.5 yrs (provisional) |
| HKS b / c | 0.35 / 5 yrs (planning assumption) |
| Post-treat PCI | ~92 (planning assumption) |
| Cost normalization | 1.038228× → BETA $84.95M |
| AADT imputation | Functional-class median (Draft 4) |
| Bond DS formula | PMT = P × r(1+r)^n / ((1+r)^n−1) |
| Home impact | Peak DS / TAV × avg SF AV |
| Statutory capacity | PENDING — EQV required |
Key sources
| Road data | BETA PMP, May 2026 |
| CLA forecast | CLA Final Report, May 2025 |
| GF debt schedule | P&I as of July 1, 2026 |
| Pension schedule | Retirement System, July 2025 |
| GASB proportion | FY2025 GASB 67/68 — 95.67% |
| TAV / avg AV | FY2026 Tax Classification |
| Statutory limit | M.G.L. Ch.44 §10 |
| Model workbook | 2M Recurring FINAL.xlsx |
| Illustrative band | HKS MLD 412 analysis |
Guardrails and interpretation
Debt exclusion mechanics: Road debt service is raised outside the ordinary Prop 2½ levy limit. Do not add to the CLA GF deficit projection.
$2M recurring base: Every scenario uses $2M/yr after deployment ends. The $5.36M lifecycle proxy is a reference — not an adopted appropriation, not used to fund PCI scenarios.
Opportunity grants: The grant toggles above adjust the FY2027 capital and supplemental totals for illustration only. Grants are not guaranteed and do not reduce the structural gap calculation.
Recurring funding gap: Debt is a one-time capital reset. Long-run sustainability requires growing recurring investment toward the $5.36M/yr lifecycle benchmark.
DPW delivery cap: When set, the cap flags scenarios where annual capital exceeds DPW's delivery capacity. This is a planning screen — not a model constraint on PCI outputs.
Homeowner screen: The illustrative ceiling is a communication marker — not an affordability threshold and not used to establish the planning band.